[CF-metadata] standards for probabilities

From: Evan Manning <Evan.M.Manning>
Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2011 06:35:10 -0800

Most of the discussion so far has centered on (1). But this raises
some other issues:

> 2) probability that air temperature will be within 2.5 degrees of the forecast

This is clearly trying to get at something akin to what we do with the
"standard_error" standard name modifier and the "standard_error_multiplier"
ancillary variable. The differences are that the units are flipped and
the assumption of a normal distribution is removed.

Can we use something analogous? Maybe a new standard name modifier
like "distribution" or "probability" or "confidence" which requires an ancillary
variable?

The best fit for this particular case is "confidence" with an ancillary variable
"confidence_interval" with value 2.5.

But something more like "distribution" is more general and could be stretched to
handle

> 1) "25th percentile precipitation amount" (based on ensemble data)

Here we might use the "distribution" (or "cumulative_distribution"?)
standard name
modifier, ancillary variable "cumulative_probability", value 0.25.

  -- Evan
Received on Tue Nov 15 2011 - 07:35:10 GMT